Market Analysis

Executive Summary

Vishal Doddanna — Value Opinion

Supported Market Value Range

$525,000 – $550,000

Based on Hearthstone villa comparable sales. Current list price is $555,000 (+$5K–$30K above supported range).

● Hearthstone comps support $252–$265/sqft on villa product — at 2,051 sqft that yields a data-supported range of $517K–$543K on above-grade square footage alone.

● Partially finished basement (only 340 sqft finished) is a material disadvantage versus comps with fully finished lower levels of 900–1,150 sqft. This is the single largest adjustment factor working against the subject.

● 69 DOM is market feedback. The listing has been available since March 28 — the market has had two months to respond and has not. This is data, not coincidence.

● HOA fee of $410/month is the highest in the comp set. Fee burden materially affects buyers’ borrowing capacity and is a genuine headwind on purchasing decisions.

● Buyer pool is restricted (~25–35% of normal) due to the 55+ age restriction, but Hearthstone has strong demographic tailwinds as the Baby Boomer cohort continues downsizing into active adult communities.

● Leverage note: The further buyers are from being under contract or having sold their current home, the less leverage they have to offer significantly below asking. Strength of offer should reflect actual situational urgency.

Subject Property

5904 Abrianna Way #B, Elkridge MD 21075

MLS MDHW2064284 · Hearthstone · 55+ Community · Interior Row/Townhouse (Villa)

Bedrooms

3 BR

Bathrooms

2 Full / 1 Half

Above Grade

2,051 sf

Below Grade (Fin.)

340 sf

Total Finished

2,391 sf

Year Built

2004

HOA Fee

$410/mo

Garage

1-Car + Driveway

Condition

Very Good

            ●
            Open-concept main level with soaring vaulted ceilings, rich hardwood floors, three-sided gas fireplace shared by living and dining areas.
          

            ●
            Main-level primary suite with walk-in closet and spa-style bath featuring oversized shower. Laundry also on main level.
          

            ●
            Upstairs loft + 2 bedrooms with flex space for office or guests. Storage room included.
          

            ●
            Partially finished basement (340 sqft): Recreation room with rough-in for future bath. Unfinished portion limits livable square footage vs. competing listings with full 900–1,150 sqft finished basements.
          

            ●
            Maintenance-free deck with retractable awning. Vinyl siding exterior. Attached 1-car garage with driveway.
          

            ●
            Kitchen: 42” cabinets, granite countertops, eat-in layout. Accessibility features: grab bars, level main entry.
          

Comparable Properties

Methodology: All comps sourced from BrightMLS. Filtered to villa/townhome structure types only — apartment flats and non-villa condos excluded. Priority given to interior-row and end-row Hearthstone villas in Elkridge (Howard County). Community, size, HOA fee, and basement finish level noted per property. Data as of June 4, 2026.

View Full MLS Search Results

Best Comp

7924 Briarglen Dr #D, Elkridge MD 21075

$560,000

Closed Nov 6, 2025 · DOM 41 (listed $575K) · Cash sale · MLS MDHW2055300

2,051 sf above grade

990 sf below grade (fin.)

$273/sf above grade

3BR / 2.5BA

Hearthstone (same comm.)

Condo fee $396/mo

Same above-grade sqft (2,051) Fully finished basement (990 sf) Sold $15K below list Year built 2004

Weight: Highest. Identical above-grade square footage (2,051 sf), same community (Hearthstone, Elkridge), same year built (2004). Critical difference: sold with 990 sf fully finished basement vs. subject’s 340 sf partially finished. Subject’s smaller basement justifies a downward adjustment vs. this comp. Closed at $273/sf above grade — subject at list is $270.60/sf, effectively at parity, but subject has materially less finished lower level. Indicates subject is at or slightly above market.

Strong Comp

6432 Koffel Ct #10, Elkridge MD 21075

$560,000

Closed Oct 3, 2025 · DOM 105 (orig. listed $625K) · MLS MDHW2052564

2,051 sf above grade

1,150 sf below grade (est.)

$273/sf above grade

3BR / 2.5BA

Hearthstone at Rockburn

Condo fee $305/mo

Same above-grade sqft (2,051) Fully finished basement (1,150 sf) 2-car garage 105 DOM — price needed 3 reductions Lower HOA ($305 vs $410)

Weight: High. Identical above-grade sqft (2,051), same broader Hearthstone brand, same year built (2004). Had a 2-car garage and lower condo fee ($305/mo vs subject’s $410/mo). Took 105 days and multiple price cuts to sell from original $625K to $560K. This comp’s trajectory (down $65K over 105 DOM) mirrors the risk of the subject’s current $555K ask at 69 DOM.

Clean Close

4905 Evening Sky Ct #6, Ellicott City MD 21043

$552,000

Closed Apr 9, 2026 · DOM 6 · Cash · MLS MDHW2065350

2,126 sf above grade

1,000 sf below grade (est.)

$259/sf above grade

3BR / 2.5BA

Hearthstone at Ellicott Mills

Condo fee $305/mo

Full walkout finished basement Went under contract in 4 days No seller concessions Lower HOA ($305/mo)

Weight: High. Most recent Hearthstone closed sale (April 2026). Sold for $552K with 2,126 sf above grade (slightly larger than subject’s 2,051 sf) and a fully finished walkout basement. Subject’s smaller above-grade footprint and partial basement would place it below this comp’s $552K close. This establishes the current market ceiling for subject-comparable product at approximately $545–$552K.

Pending

6409 Koffel Ct #21, Elkridge MD 21075

$569,000

Pending (under contract since ~May 11, 2026) · MLS MDHW2066710

2,037 sf above grade

1,000 sf below grade (fin.)

$279/sf above grade (list)

3BR / 3.5BA

Hearthstone at Rockburn

Condo fee $375/mo

Corner lot — end of row Private elevator (all 3 levels) 2-car garage New roof, HVAC, appliances Condo fee $375/mo

Weight: Moderate (pending, not closed). Under contract at $569K list with significant premium features: private elevator, corner lot, 2-car garage, major recent updates (new roof, HVAC). These amenities command a meaningful premium over subject. Close price not yet known — if sold near list, supports upper end of subject range only with seller concessions factored in. Subject cannot reach this price point without the elevator/2-car garage differentiators.

Active Competition

4918 Evening Sky Ct #18, Ellicott City MD 21043

$550,000

Active · MLS MDHW2066796 · Hearthstone at Ellicott Mills

2,126 sf above grade

1,000 sf below grade (est.)

$259/sf above grade

3BR / 3.5BA

Hearthstone at Ellicott Mills

Condo fee $310/mo

Active — currently competing with subject Fully finished lower level (1,000 sf) Lower condo fee ($310 vs $410)

Weight: High (direct competitor). A buyer looking at the subject at $555K is also looking at this property at $550K — which has a larger above-grade footprint (2,126 sf vs 2,051) AND a fully finished 1,000 sf lower level AND a lower HOA fee ($310 vs $410). This active listing is a direct competitive headwind to subject’s pricing. Subject must be priced at parity or below to compete.

Secondary

8475 Grove Angle Rd #7, Ellicott City MD 21043

$600,000

Closed Oct 29, 2025 · DOM 5 · Conventional · MLS MDHW2059564

2,450 sf above grade

Unfinished basement

$245/sf above grade

3BR / 2.5BA

Hearthstone at Ellicott Mills

Condo fee $315/mo

2-car garage Larger footprint (2,450 sf AG) Unfinished basement (note: lower $/sf reflects size) Sold in 5 DOM at $600K

Weight: Moderate. Sold $600K with 2,450 sf above grade (400 sf more than subject) and 2-car garage. Basement unfinished. At $245/sf above grade, it actually shows lower $/sf than subject’s list price because larger homes have lower $/sf. Applying $245/sf to subject’s 2,051 sf would yield $502K. Use as upper context only — subject cannot support $600K given its smaller size and partial basement.

Days on Market — Subject vs. Comparables

5904 Abrianna Way #B (Subject)

69 DOM

6432 Koffel Ct #10 (Closed $560K)

105 DOM

7924 Briarglen Dr #D (Closed $560K)

41 DOM

4905 Evening Sky Ct #6 (Closed $552K)

6 DOM

8475 Grove Angle Rd #7 (Closed $600K)

5 DOM

6409 Koffel Ct #21 (Pending $569K)

Pending

4918 Evening Sky Ct #18 (Active $550K)

Active

Subject Closed Pending Active

Price Per Square Foot — Above Grade Comparison

5904 Abrianna Way #B
Subject (List)

$271/sf

$555K ÷ 2,051 sf

7924 Briarglen Dr #D
Closed Nov’25

$273/sf

$560K ÷ 2,051 sf

6432 Koffel Ct #10
Closed Oct’25

$273/sf

$560K ÷ 2,051 sf

4905 Evening Sky Ct #6
Closed Apr’26

$260/sf

$552K ÷ 2,126 sf

4918 Evening Sky Ct #18
Active $550K

$259/sf

$550K ÷ 2,126 sf

8475 Grove Angle Rd #7
Closed Oct’25

$245/sf

$600K ÷ 2,450 sf

6409 Koffel Ct #21
Pending $569K

$279/sf

$569K ÷ 2,037 sf (list)

What the $/sf data shows. The two most directly comparable sold properties — 7924 Briarglen Dr #D and 6432 Koffel Ct #10 — both closed at $273/sf above grade on identical 2,051 sf floor plans. The subject’s list price of $555K implies $271/sf, effectively at parity. However, both those comps had significantly more finished basement square footage (990–1,150 sf vs. subject’s 340 sf). The market’s answer to an equivalent above-grade product with a much smaller finished lower level should be a discount of $10K–$25K, placing true market value at $525K–$545K.

Subject’s DOM

69

No offers after 2+ months

Subject $/sf (List)

$271

At parity with closed comps — before basement discount

HOA Premium vs. Comps

+$100/mo

$410 vs. $305–$315 at comparable sold properties

Finished Basement Gap

650–810 sf

Subject has 340 sf; comps average 990–1,150 sf

55+ Community Resalability

Understanding 55+ active adult communities requires a distinct analytical lens. These properties do not trade like conventional residential. Here is what the data and market dynamics say about Hearthstone specifically and active adult communities broadly.

👨‍👩 Restricted Buyer Pool

The 55+ age restriction limits the eligible buyer universe to approximately 25–35% of normal market participants. Not every buyer who qualifies financially also meets the age requirement. This structural restriction is the primary reason 55+ properties tend to sit longer than conventional product — the pool is simply smaller. Hearthstone at 69 DOM is behaving exactly in line with this structural pattern.

📈 Demographic Tailwinds

Despite the smaller buyer pool, demand for active adult communities has strong secular tailwinds. The Baby Boomer generation (born 1946–1964) is fully in the age range for 55+ qualification. Approximately 10,000 Americans turn 65 every day. Howard County’s concentration of educated, high-income retirees makes Hearthstone well-positioned for sustained demand, even if individual transaction timelines run longer than conventional.

💰 HOA Fee Drag

HOA fees directly affect a buyer’s qualifying debt-to-income ratio. At $410/month, the subject’s HOA is the highest in the comp set reviewed. Comparable closed properties paid $305–$396/month. The $100+/month premium effectively reduces a buyer’s purchasing power by roughly $15,000–$20,000 in qualifying loan amount (depending on rate and DTI). This is a headwind that neither buyer nor seller can negotiate away — it’s structural.

🏠 What Buyers in 55+ Communities Prioritize

Active adult buyers weight: (1) Main-level living — primary bedroom, laundry, and kitchen all on the same floor; (2) Low-maintenance exterior — lawn, snow, and building covered; (3) Community amenities; (4) Accessibility features. The subject scores well on items 1 and 2. The partially finished basement is largely irrelevant to this buyer profile — but it IS relevant to pricing because comps that closed higher had it.

🕑 Longer Sale Timelines Are Normal

55+ buyers often move from a larger home and may require more time to coordinate a sale. Many are downsizers who must sell first before purchasing. Average DOM for 55+ villa product in this Howard County sub-market runs 30–60 days for well-priced properties, 90–130 days for overpriced listings. At 69 DOM with no offers, the subject is transitioning from the “patience zone” into the “feedback zone.” The market is providing information.

👑 Hearthstone Brand Premium

Hearthstone (across its Elkridge and Ellicott Mills locations) is a recognized and desirable 55+ brand in Howard County. Properties here trade at a modest premium to non-branded active adult product due to name recognition, community quality, and management consistency. This brand premium is already baked into the comps analyzed — it does not represent additional upside above current comp-supported pricing.

Bottom line on 55+ resalability for this analysis. Hearthstone villas are a legitimate, in-demand product category with real long-term value. The subject’s 69 DOM is not a catastrophe — it is a market signal that the current price exceeds what comparable buyers are willing to pay given the basement limitation and HOA burden. A price adjustment of $10K–$30K would put the subject in alignment with closed comp data and likely generate activity within the next 30 days.

Pricing Analysis

Comp-Supported Value Range

$517K – $543K

At $252–$265/sf on 2,051 sf above grade. Before basement discount or HOA adjustment.

Vishal’s Value Opinion (Adjusted)

$525K – $550K

Adjusted for condition, gas fireplace, well-maintained condition. Current list is $555K (+$5K–$30K above range).

List Price $/sf

$271/sf

At 2,051 sf above grade

Comp $/sf Range (Closed)

$245–$273/sf

Above grade, Hearthstone villas

Subject at $525K

$256/sf

Mid-range of comp-supported $/sf

Key Adjustment Factors

🏠

Partially Finished Basement (340 sqft vs. 990–1,150 sqft in comps)

The subject’s most significant disadvantage relative to closed comparable sales. Both closed comps with identical 2,051 sf above-grade footprints (Briarglen Dr #D and Koffel Ct #10) had fully finished lower levels of 990–1,150 sf. The subject has only 340 finished sqft in the lower level. At typical finished basement values of $50–$80/sf, this gap represents a $33K–$65K functional value differential that is not reflected in the list price.

−$20K to −$30K

💰

HOA Fee of $410/Month — Highest in Comp Set

Closed comparables with similar square footage paid $305–$396/month. The subject’s $410/month fee is the highest reviewed. This creates a real borrowing capacity constraint for financed buyers. A buyer qualifying at a 43% DTI cap, paying $1,200/month in principal/interest, loses approximately $15K–$20K in purchasing power for each $100/month in HOA overage compared to competing properties. Fee burden is not offset by additional amenities compared to lower-fee Hearthstone variants.

−$10K to −$15K (effective)

🔥

Three-Sided Gas Fireplace — Distinctive Feature

The three-sided Heatilator gas fireplace shared by the living and dining areas is a design element that differentiates this home from standard Hearthstone units. While not quantifiable as a specific dollar premium in the data, it is a genuine quality-of-life feature that resonates with the 55+ buyer profile seeking a warm, inviting main level. Does not overcome the basement deficit on its own, but supports the upper end of the value range.

+Modest premium

🕑

69 Days on Market — Market Feedback Signal

Well-priced 55+ villas in this market have been closing in 5–41 days. At 69 DOM with no accepted offers and no reported price reductions since the March 28 listing date, the market has had two full months to respond and has chosen not to. This is not a function of listing agent effort or marketing — it is the market communicating that the price-to-value relationship needs adjustment. Every additional week at $555K narrows the seller’s negotiating position.

Seller urgency building

📌

Active Competing Listing at $550K

4918 Evening Sky Ct #18 (Hearthstone at Ellicott Mills) is actively competing at $550K with a larger above-grade footprint (2,126 sf), a fully finished lower level (~1,000 sf), and a lower HOA ($310/month). Any buyer who tours the subject at $555K will also see this property. The subject cannot ask $5K more than a directly superior competing listing — this comp acts as a ceiling. Offers on the subject should be based on the comp-supported range, not on the seller’s list price.

Direct pricing ceiling

What the Data Suggests

This analysis is provided for informational purposes. All valuations are based on comparable closed sales and publicly available MLS data. This is not a licensed appraisal. Individual property decisions should be made in consultation with your agent.

Market Value Range (Data-Supported)

Based on the six Hearthstone/Howard County 55+ villa comparables analyzed, the data supports a market value range of $525,000–$550,000 for 5904 Abrianna Way #B. The two most directly comparable closed properties (same 2,051 sf above-grade floorplan, same community) both closed at $560,000 but with substantially more finished basement square footage (990–1,150 sf vs. subject’s 340 sf). The most recent Hearthstone closed sale (April 2026, 4905 Evening Sky Ct) came in at $552,000 with a larger floorplan and full basement. The current list price of $555,000 is $5K–$30K above the data-supported range after accounting for the basement deficit.

The Case for an Offer in the $520K–$535K Range

The documented data supports opening in this range for the following reasons: (1) The subject’s partially finished basement (340 sf) vs. comps’ fully finished lower levels (990–1,150 sf) represents a $33K–$65K functional value gap. (2) A directly competing active listing at $550,000 offers more space and lower HOA — any offer on the subject should be calibrated against that competition. (3) 69 DOM with no offers is seller motivation evidence. (4) The HOA fee of $410/month reduces the qualifying buyer pool further vs. $305–$315/month comparable communities. (5) The two identical-sqft Hearthstone comps both required negotiation below list price (Briarglen Dr: $15K below; Koffel Ct: $65K below after 105 DOM).

Leverage Calibration

As Vishal noted: the further the buyer is from being under contract or having sold their current home, the less leverage they have. A buyer who is already under contract on their existing home, or who is purchasing with cash or pre-approved financing with no contingencies, has genuine leverage at this 69-DOM listing. A buyer who still needs to sell first and has not started that process should temper their expectations for negotiating deep discounts — the seller knows the difference between a motivated offer and a test.

Offer Framework (Data-Supported)

Opening Position

$520K–$530K

Justified by basement differential and HOA burden vs. comps. Reasonable test of seller motivation after 69 DOM.

Negotiated Settlement

$535K–$545K

Meets seller partway. Stays within comp-supported range. Competitive vs. the $550K active listing.

Walk-Away Signal

Above $550K

Exceeds comp-supported range given partial basement. Buyer absorbs full market risk at this level.

Two Items to Confirm Before Offer

(1) Verify the basement finish status on a showing: The MLS reports 340 sf finished below grade with a “rough-in for future bath.” Confirm what is actually usable versus raw storage — this is the largest single adjustment in the analysis. (2) Confirm HOA fee inclusions vs. competing communities: The $410/month is notably higher; understand what it covers (exterior maintenance, lawn, snow) and whether there are additional assessments beyond the base HOA amount listed.

Your Agent

Vishal Doddanna

Buyer’s Agent — Vidona Residential at Keller Williams

📞 (443) 718-0321 ✉ vishal@vidonaresidential.com

🏠 8825 Stanford Blvd #300, Columbia MD 21045

Questions about this analysis or ready to move on 5904 Abrianna Way? Schedule a call to walk through the numbers together.

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